Roofing Contractor News and Updates – September 2026

The U.S. roofing contractor market in 2026 is healthy but highly bifurcated. Residential steep-slope roofing continues to see pressure from high mortgage rates, weak housing turnover, affordability constraints and softer storm activity in several traditional hail markets. Commercial reroofing is considerably healthier, supported by the nondiscretionary nature of roof replacement, aging building stock, stable contractor backlogs and data-center/infrastructure construction. Meanwhile, private equity and strategic consolidation remain exceptionally aggressive. Overall, we view the market as being characterized by soft volume but strong fundamentals

Volumes are down but contractors continue to convert leads to work – The industry’s most watched hard indicator, asphalt shingle shipments, was down nearly 10% in Q1 2026. This moderated somewhat in the second quarter with 1st half of 2026 shipments down ~4.7%. While demand and lead generation are down, a full 63% of contractors in a recent survey noted that reroofing volume either increased from last year (35%) or was unchanged (28%).

Residential/steep-slope market is meaningfully weaker than the commercial/low-slope market – The Q2 National Roofing Contractor Association survey showed the steep-slope inquiry index (a measure of lead-generation demand) at 31.8 with low-slope nearly double at 60.2. Residential markets remain challenged by less frequent moving, consumers postponing large dollar projects, and higher insurance costs. At the same time, homeowners have built up tremendous home equity and the housing stock is highly aged, implying significant growth in roofing demand over a multi-year horizon.

Commercial roofing has fared far better, with a less cyclical demand profile as commercial operators must regularly engage in roofing maintenance to protect operations and satisfy insurance requirements. Low-slope manufacturer Carlisle posted an 8% revenue increase in Q2 2026 and revised its guidance up for the rest of the year on solid re-roofing demand. We expect investment in the sector from private equity and strategic consolidators to grow faster in the commercial sector than in residential, where we have historically seen most M&A activity concentrated.

Residential roofers focused on lead-gen, conversion and customer acquisition – The residential self-pay market, which has historically been the focus of investment and platform-building by private equity, had a rough 2025, with some firms seeing demand fall by double digits. This has forced firms to focus on operational metrics and efficient marketing, with technology playing a major factor. Many independent roofers have rolled out end-to-end software solutions such as ServiceTitan, Jobber and others. Self-pay market roofers are evaluating their marketing spend and cost of job-acquisition, leaning into digital marketing and using external lead-gen and job boards like Skeduled to efficiently find jobs.

M&A and consolidation continue despite an uneven market – We continue to see an active M&A market across the roofing landscape. In the upstream space we have seen major players make big bets in roofing manufacturing and distribution (Carlisle’s offer for Owens Corning, The Home Depot/SRS, QXO/TopBuild) and expect the manufacturing and distribution market to continue to consolidate around a few large firms. This will put more pressure on downstream contractors to consolidate to counter the leverage of larger suppliers up the value chain.

Private equity continues to aggressively court roofing contractor businesses with 17 PE-backed platforms in 2023 rising to 56 by the end of 2024 and over 100 bolt-on acquisitions reported across 2024 and 2025. Investors continue to value the fragmentation of the contractor market, the high level of replacement demand, and the benefits that scale and density provide to operators.

But the M&A landscape and what buyers are looking for has shifted – As private equity-backed platforms gain their footing and achieve scale and face a more challenging environment than the early 2020s, buyers have narrowed their focus and valuation ranges. Acquirors ascribe the highest value to contractors with some combination of the following traits:

• Scale – deals of $2MM EBITDA or more attract the resources and interest to drive higher values
• Strong local reputation and a market “moat”
• Recurring commercial maintenance contracts
• Geographic density
• Opportunity for cross-selling other exterior services (e.g., windows/doors, waterproofing, façade restoration, decking, etc.)
• Low owner dependency/established bench of management

Summary of market factors and implications for roofers – Today’s market is characterized by several factors, some of which are pulling in opposite directions. While residential demand remains soft and materials and labor present challenges, valuations for strong businesses are holding up, and investors do not need to necessarily underwrite a full near-term recovery to aggressively chase good assets.

About Anchor Peabody

Anchor Peabody is the premier investment bank for the building industry. Our dedicated M&A specialists deliver outsized outcomes that only insiders can. For a confidential discussion, please reach out to Aaron Toomey at [email protected]